International Education’s India 2012 Report Card and forecast for 2013: Market shrinking and 10,000 is the new “fee paying student” target.

USA: Forget the hype around the IIE released enrolment statistics that givea all of us, an impression that 100,000 Indian students reach US each year. This is largely playing with the data available and honestly a little faulty for any planning purpose. The reality is that the total number of visas issued to Indian students based in India to study in the US, has remained between 20,000 to 30,000 in the last several years. US gives out annual numbers of countrywide visa numbers and in various categories and this can be found on http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/nivstats/nivstats_4582.html and the more precise information on 2012 can be found on this link. In 2012, the total number of F1 (not including F2 which is for dependents of F1) category visa had fallen to 23,446. Now we need to remember that rough estimates indicate that at-least half of the total number of Indian students choose US because of the significant financial aid or scholarship that they can get. Hence, using a very rough estimate, I am of the opinion that the total number of fee-paying Indian students choosing to study in the USA will be around 10,000 at the maximum. Having stated the numbers, the fall or increase for US has not been too significant and remains +-10%. This is an indication of the country being a destination primarily due to the education that it offers.

• Prediction for 2013:Numbers of Indian students proceeding to US will remain around 24000. However newspapers will continue to highlight the enrolment statistics that will show India as the No.2 to China as a source for international students and will highlight the figure of 100000. The gradually strengthening US dollar may make it a little more expensive for Indian students and considering that the bulk of the students are scholarship driven to US, I estimate that about 10,000 fee paying students will enter USA. One more interesting trend is an increase in the undergraduate students from a new crop of IB and international schools who may consider US since options within India for them are going to be limited due to a clear mis-match to the Indian academic calendar and also the preparedness for the Indian admissions. The orientation of such schools is geared towards an under-graduation in the USA anyways.

United Kingdom: UK has been experiencing a fall in student numbers over the last few years. One of the statistics that I have recently seen indicates that in 2012 the total number of students who chose to study in the UK during 2012 fell by about 50% to 15097. Now this is a significant fall indeed and considering that the numbers have been falling over the past two years. However this number is still higher than what most predicted. What should concern UK though is that the trends in 2013 indicate that we are looking at a continuing slide in student numbers to UK. The sentiments are extremely negative resulting from the changes with regards to the post-study-work that the UK has initiated predominantly due to politically rhetoric position of the Cameron government and despite sane advise of the UniversitiesUK and British Council. More detailed statistics on UK can be found on this link.

• Prediction for 2013:There is nothing to brake the trend and I estimate that the fall in student numbers during 2013 will be close to a further 30% and hence we can even see the total number of students seeking UK during 2013 to decline to about 10,000 or even marginally lower. The market will remain limited to the metropolitan cities within India. Further, there is an ongoing issue over the validity of one year Master degrees and while there is a talk within India on the extension of regular Honours Bachelor degrees to 4 years, the 3 years Engineering Bachelors that English Universities offer is also being questioned. The most highlighted reason for the decline in student numbers continues to be abolition of Post Study Work. I am predicting that UK will lose its position of No. 2 choice for Indian students and we may see it as No.4 during the year.

• Prediction for 2013: Students from North and West India in particular continue to be sold to Canada as a destination largely by “migration cum education agents”. Once again solely due to the migration pathway that the education in Canada offers. Canada has experienced a significant growth in student numbers but now I am predicting a slight correction. 2013 will be a decisive year for Canada and if it can make some important corrections: it can promote its finer institutions and screen the student applications a little better. I am expecting the student numbers to drop to about 10,000 during this year. This is not a bad thing though. The student numbers to Universities should grow a little too at the same time. However one of the biggest impediments for the growth of student numbers for the Universities is that the key Universities are still traditional in their approach and hence have not yet embraced the engagement of education counsellors/agents in markets such as India and so clearly unlike their competitors.

• Prediction for 2013: There is a need for NZ to increase its student numbers for the Universities. The various sectors(Universities, Polytechnics and Private Providers) within NZ seem to be working on their own independent strategies. And most of the strategies are knee-jerk reactions anyways. Quality of student numbers needs to improve and that can only happen through a determined effort to promote NZ as a destination for quality students and not just for those who want an easy way to migrate. Post Study Work and Settlement is indeed a major USP for NZ and so in some ways it is similar to Canada. However, the country needs to recognise it as an USP and link it more to the degree and postgraduate students than to the undergraduate general diplomas. Copying strategies of UK and Australia will not help and it needs to look more towards Canada as they compete directly. I am predicting that the market from India will continue to decline by 20% and may be below 5000 during 2013 and the proportion of students to private colleges and polytechnics will continue to be predominant though there is an effort to bring about a balance. However no strategy remains the bother.

• Prediction for 2013: Australian SVP mechanism has worked in reversing the sentiments and even though the total visa applications has declined over last year marginally, the total number of visa grants has increased significantly and we can expect that in 2013, the total number of Indian students travelling out to Australia will be around 10,000. Australia has released the 9 month data for July 2012 and March 2013 and this, by itself has gone past the full year numbers for 2011-2012. This is no way near the 60,000 that entered a few years ago but this 10,000 is largely to the Higher Education Sector as compared to the earlier time when most would have entered the vocational sector. There are reports that the Australian dollar which has been very high and an impediment could also see a correction soon. Post Study Work and SVP are the two key drivers enabling higher student visa numbers. However, I am of the opinion that the country needs to fine tune the SVP a little as there is evidence that it is being abused and some non-genuine are also entering on the basis of fraudulent documents. Overall, it is a growth phase for Australia this year.