New education minister (Simon Crean) has today been quoted in newspapers (look up http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/crean-says-the-overseas-market-wont-collapse/story-e6frgcjx-1225900787442 ) in Australia that things are not as bad since the enrollments have gone up, I have been forced to look for the exact statistics.
The following is the data for the student visas to Indians issued offshore (paper and eVisa) for the period July to June. All from the stats section of the DIAC site and hence reliable.
For 2009-10 the total numbers of student visas for Indian nationals to Australia is only 12483 and compared to 54574 for 2008-09, it is a huge drop in numbers of 77%.
Interestingly we seem to assume that the drop has been mainly in 572 and not in 573. On the contrary, the stats show that 572 dropped fro 31451 to 7014 while for 573 it dropped from 22366 to 5018. Hence 573(degrees and University coursework HE students) has dropped by approx 77% while 572 (VET diplomas) has dropped by approx 77% too.
There is something about the figure of 77% as it is uniform drop across the major subcategories and also with the total figure. I used to believe that 7 was a lucky number! Maybe but a double 7 is not so lucky now.
This is the reason why I have always advocated that enrolment stats tend to misguide and should be avoided… Statistically it is proven that at several times in past, numbers have dipped for countries but enrollments have risen due to re-enrolments or students being forced to stay as students to maintain visas. I want to re-invite you to an earlier blog that I did on 29th April regarding the attempt of US in confusing the world with enrolment data when their numbers fall. Ours indeed is a land of apes. Australia unlike the UK but copying the US began citing enrollments to show up larger figures and hence has once again tried to camouflage the fall by using useless enrollment data…The link to my previous blog on this topic is https://ravilochansingh.com/2010/04/29/us-fed-education-data-misleads-the-world-and-themselves…/