Category Archives: Australian Government

Nov 25 2010

2010 report-card and 2011 prediction: Demand from India for International Destinations

With 2010 Indian Student Data available for all major destinations and with UK too showing a huge decline(40%), is it a depression in the industry or a mere correction causing a “depression”!!!

depression |diˈpre sh ən|
noun

severe despondency and dejection, typically felt over a period of time and accompanied by feelings of hopelessness and inadequacy.
• a long and severe recession in an economy or market : the depression in the housing market.

Britain: 2010 and a prediction for 2011.

Now that the UK visa numbers for 2010 are being reported (see link) and with clear indications that the total number from India who will enter Britain for their education during the year to be not more than 35000 (a fall of 40% in 2010 over 2009), the corrections are truly in place and is being expected to finally settle around 25000-30000 per year by 2011. It may be due to the spurt last year was fuelled by sudden loosening of visas that led to thousands ending up in UK even without proper English communication abilities. The correction had to occur and was predicted even on the very first day when the loosening had been initiated. Britain’s total intake from India is likely to hover around 25000 and certainly under 30000. There are also whispers that UK may cut the 2-year post study work permission that now exists for graduating International students. If this happens, the numbers can shrink further.

America: 2010 and a prediction for 2011.

Thankfully, the reporting of the enrolment statistics has a mention of the total visa grants and so the newspapers have put that in right context for the first time. China overtaking India in total enrolments in 2010 is hardly of significance as was India leading in enrolments in 2009, a red-herring. I predict the Chinese numbers to also lower in coming years. The actual demand for a destination comes from the total number of fresh student visas from one country for another. The reports (see link) show that there were 32000 visas from India to USA in one year and I feel that this data is actually a comparable stats to UK’s 57000 of 2009 and my gut feeling is that in 2010, USA received less than 30000 students from India. What will happen in future will depend on how much the US institutions progress in adapting to the education agent-assisted recruitment. If there is progress and if more established University brands accept agents, the numbers can swell and USA can take a clear lead. However the marketing period for 2011 intake for the quality and more rigorous institutions is actually over already considering the lead time in place and one can expect realistically the Indian numbers to USA to hover around 30000 or even less.

Australia: 2010 and a prediction for 2011.

Australia had led the internationalization at one time in history but now is becoming an example of how a country continues to blunder to non-existence of the clichéd “whole of government” approach to Internationalization of education. The student numbers from India in their immigration stats for July 2009 to June 2010 over the earlier period fell by 77% to about 12000. (see my earlier blog with details on link). My gut feel is that if we look at the calendar year 2010, it will be only about 10000 or even less. The question being asked in all quarters is whether it will go down further in 2011 or will it begin to rise. The answer my friend is blowing in the wind. It was expected that Immigration will begin welcoming the quality students and turn on the tap once again for them. Especially when the risk of abuse of Assessment level mechanism being low following 1)so called PR vocational courses losing shine and 2)packaging route to enable easier visas through the higher category has been blocked. However, the “Immigration” continues to be guided by its experience of fraud in student applications though I continue to hope that the checks in place will be able to prune out the rogue from all applicants without disadvantaging genuine students. I feel fatigued from the various submissions made again and again and this fatigue is going to set in also with institutions and various lobby groups who seem to be again actively rushing to Canberra in a bid to get ministers and departments to understand their panic. I also believe that there exists misplaced arguments that lowering of the AL for category 573 will lead to its abuse again. Each passing day is resulting in lower prospects for a revival for the industry. The institutions have to take blame for their late start in lobbying. For a long time the institutions stayed put in the belief that the loss of numbers from India can be made up from China and I remember warning the leading providers that Chinese students enter the process at the ELICOS and pathway stage and so the impact only shows up one year later at the Universities. Which has happened now and so they have finally woken up. Better late than never.

Canada: 2010 and a prediction for 2011.

All reports show that Canada is doing a few things right. The SPP system in place has solved the muddle about the private institutions recruiting from India and given a clear direction. The system is working and the institutions are happy. The market is buzzing too. All indications are that that Canada is the story to watch in 2010-11 and should hit their highest student numbers ever from India. And why not! Canada also does-not hides behind experts that advice delinking of education and work pathways. They are also not compromising in anyway with regards to English requirements or funds and the SPP system is a model that should be adopted by Australia and NZ too as both has a developed private institution setup that is hungry for students. The University sector is also actively wooing the Indian students and recently a number of baits have been announced by way of scholarships. (see link on a major visit by the Universities to India earlier this month).My prediction for 2011 is that the country will continue to show good student numbers and if the institutions can come around to greater coverage of the Indian sub-continent and not just focus on North and West, Canada can top the total student visa numbers across destinations from India by 2012-13.

New Zealand: 2010 and a prediction for 2011

NZ that went up from in 2009 may actually have reached its most limit in 2010 at around  6500 approvals. (This data is the changed figure from the initial blog based on revised inputs received on 26th November 2010. Visa grants in calendar year 2010 till 25th November was 6187 and my estimate is that by the close of 2010 it will still remain around 6500. NZ saw an increase of 10% last year and is once again exhibiting about 10-15% growth this year. While the number of visa applications in 2009 and 2010 are roughly the same, the growth is largely due to reducing rejection rates of visas). The issue is not of the numbers but where they are going within NZ. The growth in 2009-10 was largely due to numbers ending up at the various private colleges and not as many to the Universities. It is now being expected that the numbers will stay well within this total for next few years but more will end up with institutions of repute. The University sector has fine-tuned their marketing in a collaborating format and the results are around the corner for them. The ITPs too have added more and more postgraduate and graduate diploma courses to be able to cater to Indian students looking at studies post their Bachelors. The visa system is finally showing evidence of maturity and the fund transfer scheme will make it easier for borderline students to be able to go ahead beyond the border. NZ too has a future here though my gut feeling is that the numbers will not grow too much but will end up with better institutions now. What is bothering me is the reports that seem to suggest that Education NZ may be merged with Trade NZ and hence going on the line that AEI lost its promotions and marketing role to Austrade. (see link)

Other Destinations: 2010 and a prediction for 2011

Singapore continues to grow but will (or has already) hit its potential in India. The test will be when know of the experience of majority of the Indian graduates from the second tier Singapore institutions with the job market in Singapore or elsewhere. I remain a little circumspect and will wait on for the reports to emerge.

Dubai and UAE has ceased to grow from India in my opinion. There is an audience but that audience is very limited.

China became a destination for Indian medical students primarily due to aggressive marketing by certain education marketers. Screening tests that graduating students have to take in India in line with Medical Council of India guidelines to be eligible as practitioners are reportedly fairly tough and there are several who are not able to clear it in their first attempt. Hence to say that China as such is not a destination but is (or was) driven by the access to cheaper qualification and in hope for their acceptance in India primarily as doctors will not be misplaced. There was a time that USSR was a prime destination for such students when MCI recognized the Soviet Union qualifications for the profession. Now that Medical Council of India has the screening test in place, the time for China as a destination is limited and the future of such students fairly risky. (Read this link to understand the risk)

Malaysia and Thailand have tried marketing in India and barring a few exceptions in AIT in Bangkok or Monash in Malaysia, I would feel that appeal for them in India would remain limited despite cost and visa attractiveness.

Certain European countries such as Switzerland (for Hospitality), France (for Management) and Germany (for Engineering and fee-free education) may hold some interest in India but will never emerge as a major education destination because India students aim at English-speaking destinations.

Conclusion and Overall student trends in 2010-11:

What we need to note is that the total number of Indian students going overseas to study has declined for sure and when we add up the numbers for all the major destinations, it is clear to me that in 2010, there will be less than 120000 students in total who may have travelled out of India on student visas (Despite indications that Canada and NZ have shown a growth). This is an approximate decline of 30% indicating a recession in the industry. I fear a further 15-20% decline in 2011 before it settles down around 100000 students and what will be of interest is the market share of the various destinations then.

The reasons for decline certainly stem from the US recession two years ago followed up with media hyped concerns on student security in Australia and coupled by tightening of post study work opportunities and student visa policies. Some may try to assume this to be a result of growth of Indian education sector that many are opting to study in India itself. I disagree by saying that while the intentions are very much there, no real ground development has taken place yet to convince me. Beyond a few of the Indian private colleges of debatable repute, there are also stories of action against the deemed statuses of some colleges. Foreign University Bill is yet to be passed and even if they are passed, it will take years before capacity can be increased in India.

The fact that recession is very well set in our Industry is also indicative by the fact that there are job-losses and no real indications of immediate upturn. It may actually be camouflaged as a much needed correction but certainly this correction is going to last for a few years and is causing a “depression” in our minds if not in technicality.

Nov 12 2010

OZ in November 2010 listens to our echo and my impressions of the new Skilled Migration Point Test.

“An echo (plural echoes) is a reflection of sound, arriving at the listener some time after the direct sound.”

This has been an unusual week and one that fosters optimism and hope for 2011 in the Industry. On Tuesday, a gathering of selective education agents and also some members of the press in presence of several officers of the Australian Post in New Delhi heard an eminent expert from Australian International Education Industry indicating the following:

  1. The interpretations and use of various stats on student mobility and the number of international student numbers tend to confuse and misguide and the only real statistics to gauge changes to demand for a country destination is the fresh student visa numbers. The reality is that there has been a severe fall in student numbers from India this year and he was quoting the DIAC statistics.
  2. The Minister for Education of Australia (while in Beijing) has reportedly criticized the student visa regulations which have become a detriment in the growth of the industry and is not serving the purpose. There are indications that he will be recommending to the Minister for Immigration to review them.
  3. An urgent need for all to come together to re-launch brand Australia.

He is right in making the points but these points are not being made for the first time. No. Not at all. I have argued over last 4 years that the use of enrolment stats by Australia often ends up misguiding and confusing the decision makers. The point has been repeatedly made and even recently, I attacked the attempt to spin the reality with the help of enrolment stats that painted a better picture but just a picture nevertheless. The second point too has been the one that AAERI has lobbied for and provided “formal and informal” submissions to the then Minister of Immigration directly or through their office. Wait a minute here: The Minister for Immigration of that time is the current Minister for Education and hence the Minister seems to be acknowledging finally that the regulations that he introduced and decided upon have indeed become an undesired “cocktail”. AAERI too has been shouting to all who matter that there is need to re-launch the Australian Education Brand in the Indian market and this job has to begin with the Government and others pooling in. I have written on the need to re-create a “pull” for quality Australian Education in my blogs.

This is the reason why I refer to the comments as an “echo” but certainly welcome. I want to thank all for coming around to the views here… This gives us fresh optimism for 2011. Now the voice will be louder and hence the echoes will be more effective.

Fresh optimism also arise from the New Point Test for General Skilled Migration announced in Australia yesterday.

Though not a Migration “expert” or a Migration “agent”, I have been involved with the industry for a sufficient period of time to be able to gather its merits and demerits. Having said this, my comments below remains an opinion only and can still be plagued by biases. (Though I hope not.)

I find the new point-test to be a huge directional change as far as it attempts at favouring the “university graduates” over “vocationals”.

However, I failed to find any implementation of the hyped commentaries that Australia was delinking migration from international education. I have always maintained that it is just not possible to delink the two as they inter-dependent. Students travelling overseas from markets like India or China do and will continue to seek “post study work or settlement opportunities” and I have made this point even in my earlier blogs. The new point-test too maintains the link in future.

There are several ways in which education will continue to remain a pathway to migration and it is not unique to Australia. Under the proposed point-test, International students graduating after two years of study will get 5 points extra which appears to be of critical importance when the pass mark for PR will be 65. International students who choose to study at campuses away from larger cities will get another 5 points AND there are 5 points for 1 year Australian work experience that in my opinion will be easier for graduating students who move to subclass 485-visa post study. The professional year gives 5 points and can now be counted as additional (not in lieu) of the 1-year OZ experience points.

I want to say THANK YOU to the Minister and the department.

Saying THANK YOU are possibly the following others in Australia:

  1. Migration Agents may find that the new system opens opportunities for them in offshore markets where those with minimum 6.0 IELTS can quite easily make it with a few years of experience and points from partner’s qualification. Also the regional sponsorships will keep them busy.
  2. Private Education Providers are possibly smelling “quick bucks” by way of onshore students attempting to undertake parallel English Classes to enable a higher IELTS and possibly some who might need tutoring for them to clear the requirement for the community language points. The “professional year” is worth exploring too.
  3. Onshore education agents may attempt to market the “professional year” courses and programs and enable thousands of the currently enrolled vocational students at TAFEs to either move through a package onto degrees or move institutions from private diplomas to the universities.
  4. IELTS Australia will certainly once again come out smiling. The unfortunate monopoly that IELTS enjoys (despite TOEFL and PTE lobbying hard) ensures that the higher IELTS score requirements will result in applicants retaking the IELTS several times to clear the tough requirements.
  5. Those in the age group of 30-32 and 45-50 will be delighted with the new point test. The highest points for age are now allotted up-to the age of 32 (and not 30) and the ceiling has been raised to under 50 from the earlier limit of 45.

These are the positives but there are those who seem to be quite disappointed and would say “rightly so too” in “some” cases.

  1. Vocational Courses and providers have been dealt a severe blow. The students who undertake these courses are certainly more “job ready” but will find the point-test more difficult due to less points for diplomas and also due to minimum bench marks set for English proficiency even though their work skills require lower levels. Vocational students at the most undertake 2-year diplomas and hence the age of the graduating student will mostly be around early 20s and now they will get fewer points for being under 25. I feel that Australia has failed to address the needs not just of the TAFE providers who offer quality training but will also lead to skill shortages in Australia in fairly near future once again.
  2. The issue of lower points for those less than 25 years of age also disadvantages graduating Bachelors degree students. Historical evidence will indicate that those who undertake a Bachelors degree over 3 or 4 years in Australia fit in better in the country’s work place even over those who come with Bachelors from elsewhere and undertake a shorter Masters degree.
  3. The provision for the highest English language points to those with 8.0 score in IELTS is too too severe. I challenge an “average” Australian University graduate even with a “distinction” in academics to take the IELTS and get this score in the first attempt. Doctors. Nurses and Teachers world over and including in UK are required to only provide evidence of 7.0 in IELTS which too is considered quite a high bench mark and hence the new 8.0 score requirement for the maximum points is only going to rich-en the providers of the IELTS as the students will be forced to retake IELTS several times.
  4. In India, markets like Punjab, Gujarat and possibly even Hyderabad will find fewer takers even for the quality Aussie degrees or programs.

Having said the above, I welcome the new point-test for two reasons. Firstly, it maintains the pathway for international students studying in Australia to move to PR despite all politically noisy arguments and Secondly, it puts an end to the 9 months of labour(!) ever since the government’s announcement in February that the system will be revamped and then began introducing the policies in “installments” leading to utter chaos.

Now that we have the bricks delivered we can begin re-building Australia once again in the Indian minds.

Disclaimer: Though not a Migration “expert” or a Migration “agent”, I have been involved with the industry for a sufficient period of time to be able to gather its merits and demerits. Having said this, my comments below remains an opinion only and can still be plagued by biases. (Though I hope not.). More authoritative information can only be found on www.immi.gov.au

Oct 8 2010

A crook-Ed tale indeed: Only bollywood and incorrect picturisation of the Indian student issues in Oz.

I am a movie buff but have never been as eager for a movie release as was this day. CROOK was in the newspapers for a year as a story linked to the reported and hyped “attacks” on indian students in Melbourne last year.

Hence I decided to check out the movie in their first day first show this day. 9 am show so that I can finish by around 1130 am or so that I can still get back to office. In a way I am justifying this movie as part of my today’s work and will claim the cost of the tickets from the expense account.

Nikhat Kazmi of TOI gave it a rating of 3/5 which appears to me still as generous. I will not try to do a review or synopsis. here as there will be several more available on the net.

To be honest, the movie is less factual and more of a bollywood fiction. The importance of PR to an Indian student is the theme and the way to get it is said to be only two: either pay an agent and get fake work exp OR get married to an Aussie. Ha ha ha.

The attacks are shown to be more of inter group rivalry with the Aussies gangs being hassled with desis marrying Aussie girls. And attackers are all white Australians. So far removed from the reality where attackers have been largely teenagers muggers and often including kids belonging to various races and also in a focussed incident, an indian.

Snide comments strike out where Australians are referred to as those without cultural values and as descendents of crooks. Are these not racistic generalizations. However in the end the movie blurs the difference between Indians and Australians.

The indian student from Hoshiarpur or Gurdaspur shown to be on full scholarship (McCarthy scholarship to study at Taylors college) is an insult to Indian student’s quality. The guy is a comic and utters pathetic English. All indian students look alike, drive taxis, work in petty jobs and none attend to studies. Even the one with scholarship.

Ha ha ha again.

Gangs can get in easily into hospitals and attempt stabbing Indians. There appears to be an all out indian-aussie gangwar openly on streets. Guns are easily available. Ha ha ha.

Add to this a good dose to revenge, bollywood filmy style. Indians referred as Pakis(!!!) appearing that Pakistanis and Indians join hands against Aussies.

Technically too the story has flaws. None of the drivers wear seat belts and driving licenses are fixed. It’s easy to change identity and reach Australia. There is a scene with snow on the road while it appears to be summer elsewhere.

Are there any positives: the actress keeps insisting on cultural harmony between races and convinces the hero to join her efforts. Melbourne looks beautiful and inviting in parts. There is a scene where Hashmi says that Indians are racist too. Typical bollywood style closure and climax.

That’s all. Just when the media hype on Aussie attacks had been rectified in public memory, we have this twisted story or should I say a crook-Ed tale.

Censors did well by giving it an A rating. Avoidable. Mahesh Bhatt needs to do his homework better. I look forward more to the second test match starting tomorrow in Bangalore and for the Laxman effect.

Sep 10 2010

UK Immigration Minister signals “review” of student visas… Has UK learnt its lesson? I doubt.

Deccan Chronicle reported on 7th September that British immigration minister, Mr Damian Green, is due to announce a crackdown on student visas. (See link.)

Mr Green, in an interview with Radio 5 Live on Monday morning mentioned his India visit. “I’m going to see if [visas] are benefiting university students. We’ve found people calling themselves collegiates but instead had a room above a kebab shop … I recently came back from India where I saw rows of shops where literally every other shop was offering visas to study in England. The authorities in India want to cooperate, as they don’t want their students conned by unscrupulous agents there,” he said.

Guys, are you surprised!!! Ever since UK lifted the flood gates more than a year ago, I have been predicting that a “review” will be needed sooner than later…

In an attempt to better understand what the Immigration Minister is saying, I visited the speech made to Royal Commonwealth Society by Home Office Immigration Minister Damian Green on 6th September 2010. Here are the excerpts from that speech:

Of course it is true that there have been many changes in the system since 2004 so it would be wrong to extrapolate directly, but the possible consequences are clear. If we continue to have a fifth of each cohort of students staying long term we will have very high net migration numbers indeed.

To those who say that these are precisely the brightest and the best who Britain needs, I would say let’s look at the facts. We estimate that around half, I repeat, around half of the students coming here from abroad only, are coming to study a degree level (or above) course.

Most people think foreign students come here to attend our top universities and of course these are the students we want to attract. But the real picture of the parts of Britain’s education system that attract foreign students is much more varied. It includes the publicly-funded further education sector, private vocational colleges, language schools, independent schools and many partnerships between higher and further educational institutions. The foreign students attending these various establishments may, or frankly may not be, the brightest and the best.

I want a student visa system which encourages the entry of legitimate students coming to study legitimate courses.  For me that certainly means students coming to study at universities, students who are equipped to study the courses to which they have subscribed and who fulfil their academic obligations, students who at the end of their period of leave return to their country of origin. That is good for the students concerned, it is good for the institutions they study in, and it is good for Britain. Indeed study of this kind has been one of our national success stories ever since Margaret Thatcher took the decision to expand our higher education sector and it certainly brings significant economic benefits to the UK.

However, it also means that we need to understand more clearly why a significant proportion of students are still here more than five years after their arrival. And we also need a system which can scrutinise effectively, and if necessary take action against, those whose long-term presence would be of little or no economic benefit. Of course we are the ideal country for others to come to learn English. But I want to ensure those who come here to study at language schools or any other institutions play by the rules and leave when their visas expire.

We estimate we are bringing more than ninety thousand people into Britain every year to do courses below degree level at private institutions.  We need to decide whether this is right and also whether it is the best thing in each case for the students themselves, given the high financial commitments required of them.  When I visited India last month I found the authorities and education sector representatives were happy to work with us to raise the quality of applicants and also to make life difficult for the unscrupulous agents who too often prey on them.

It is beyond dispute that Britain’s universities contain some of the best in the world and that they need to be competing for the world’s best students. The immigration system should help them in this. But this does not mean that every student visa issued is necessarily benefiting Britain.

So is he saying that the system put into place last year has not worked and that policy is going to be re-jigged?  Listen on to what he continues to say in that speech… (full text of the speech available on this link)

There is no doubt that by the end of their period the last government wanted to bring immigration under control. But we’ve learnt the Points-Based System is not enough on its own. It needs bolstering in two important ways. Annual limits on work visas, just as they have in other open and successful economies: and a much closer focus on who is qualifying under each section of our immigration system. We absolutely need sustainable immigration levels. This will relieve pressure on public services, and stop immigration being such a delicate political issue. At the same time, we must be confident enough to say Britain is open for business and study to those who will make this a better country, and a more open society.

Its like history repeating itself again and again and lessons of one country not being learnt by another. The Australian Immigration Minister Senator Chris Evans indicates this in his media release on 8th September when he states:

‘This was one of the factors which led to the unsustainable explosion in student numbers. Other countries, including the United Kingdom, are now dealing with the same problem and are looking to follow Australia’s example by tightening immigration controls.’

Senator Evans said Labor had already introduced regulations which were proportional to the risk posed by different categories of prospective students.

Australia now has a minority government akin to Britain and while the care-taking Immigration minister is not called Green, they have indeed got Greens in the government. (The new Immigration Minister will be appointed by the new PM, Miss Julia Gillard, next week…)

The story is the same and players are the same. The affected country is India. The private colleges woo students from India. And the interestingly the scapegoats will be the education agents from India who are so generally stereotyped as unscrupulous…

I am also an education agent and not unscrupulous for sure… Excuse me!!!

Sep 10 2010

Indian message to Australia: “An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.” and random thoughts on the Australian Elections.

Indian expectations from the new Aussie Government…

This is being penned from Sydney where I have been keenly observing the dynamics of the Australian politics over the last few weeks. To me it has been so very interesting and one that I can easily relate to (coming from India). Minority Governments, a deal with Independents, last minute jigsaw and not much to decide between contending political parties is all too common in today’s India. Also like Indian political alliances between contrasting outfits, Australia too is seeing the Greens and the Labour and conservative Independents going with the Labour to form the Government.

I am often asked what can be expected from the current Government with regards to the “international education angle” in the “Indian” context and that does get one to start thinking. Is there really going to be any change? No. Not actually. Wasn’t Julia Gillard, the PM today, the education minister yesterday? Was she not the one who was the first Minister to visit India to soothe its nerves in September last year and how can she absolve herself from the gross in-action on part of the Victorian Police and also by the federal government’s non-regulation of the private colleges for such a long time.

Anyway, we all learn with time and even though I would avoid trying to read much into the words uttered by the politicians, I do believe that continuity is the best medicine at this time. There is a policy that is emerging in Australia in favour of quality education providers and in favour of the genuine migrants who bring in skills to Australia. We may have to forget the emotions and understand that at the end of the day Australia needs international education export and needs skilled immigrants. Both are linked and will remain linked in some manner. The other advantage of continuity is that the current Indian Government and new Australian Government have been talking to each other through the last one year and almost a dozen visits by Australian senior leaders reciprocated by 3-4 visits by Indian ministers has led to a level of understanding now. Kapil Sibal as India’s education minister (Minister of HRD) has hit off with Julia Gillard apparently and that is good too. With no real reshuffling expected of the bureaucrats, we can expect the joint working group continuing with its dialogue.

I am further encouraged by the fact that Greens who are now a part of the ruling coalition has been talking through the campaign for less vindictive border control and better treatment of migrants including the illegal migrants and asylum seekers. Marry this to “stop the boat” campaign of the Labour government and you are certain to get a balanced immigration policy.

At the micro level to my industry, I am expecting a fairly quick call with regards to easing of visa norms for the “university bound” students and this will be really welcome. For those who understand technicalities, I am advocating lowering of Assessment Level for India for category 573 and acceptance of Pearson’s and TOEFL in addition to IELTS. I also hope for less “anti-migrant” noises that were previously made for the domestic vote-banks, now that elections are out of the way.

I have been however desirous of observing if the Indian Media was following the Australian elections and whether it understood its relevance to India. The sad truth is that there was hardly any coverage outside of wire reports from time to time. Even on the day of the final result on this Friday, very few newspapers gave it prominence and even the internet sites of NDTV and IBN failed to even mention it. Hence pleasantly surprised I was when my hometown newspaper (The Telegraph in Calcutta) carried an editorial on the election result yesterday. While I don’t agree to the first paragraph of the article on this link where it claims that most attackers were “white Australians” (reality: attackers were of mixed race and also Indians) and most attacks ended in death (aware of only one death from the attacks and most deaths in the last few years were handiworks of other Indians), the editorial commentary on the election result including the caution that even one single by-election can bring down the government before its tenure ends, display a good understanding of the current Australian politics. Quoting from this editorial from The Telegraph (Kolkata, India) below:

So India may well hope that Mr Rudd’s successor and party colleague, Julia Gillard, who became the first female prime minister of her country, would be more proactive in making Australia a safer and more equitable place for immigrants. Such an expectation is not unwarranted. After all, Ms Gillard has cobbled together a ‘rainbow coalition’ with crucial support from one Green and three Independent members of parliament. And the Greens want the new government to focus on humane treatment of asylum-seekers and other foreigners in Australia. So this is Ms Gillard’s best chance of salvaging the global image of her country even as she tries to repair the schisms within her party.

Earlier this week, I was hosted by UNSW to pay my homage to the newly installed bust of Gandhi. The bust, I am told, was presented by the Government of India to the State Government of NSW and the state Government chose UNSW grounds as the appropriate location for its installation.

What an appropriate symbol at this time…  What was even more appropriate was the choice of his words that are inscribed on the sculpture…

“An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.”

Sep 2 2010

Ground Reality: Aussie bound Indian student numbers down 77% NOT BY HALF. Newspapers and Experts foxed by data.

Ground Reality: Aussie bound Indian student numbers down 77% NOT BY HALF. Newspapers and Experts foxed by confusing stats that include re-issued visas.

In yesterday’s The Australian, UNSW Pro VC (International) is quoted that the Indian student visa numbers are down to 29,721. Today in The Age, Stephen Connelly echoes the same number (see link). They are not wrong but the number that they refer to is not just of Indian students issued visas offshore and those issued eVisas BUT also those who were given visa extensions and re-issued visas onshore. From the words used in the two articles I guess they have not picked up the difference or have got foxed by the DIAC spin.

The ground reality is that the student visa numbers for July 2009 to June 2010 for offshore grants including eVisas is actually down by 77%. The stats of both types are available on the http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statistics/study/

Now lets look at comparative stats from United Kingdom: The student visas issued during Jan to December 2009 over 2008 were actually 100% increased. Need we say more!!!

I expect the 2010-2011 student visas grant offshore (and evisa) to actually go down further to about 8000 and then expect a gradual growth over the coming years from mid 2011 onwards and my prediction in 5 years is that the total student visas to Indians will rise to an optimum of 15000-20000. I feel that this is the limit and capacity.

On 20th August 2010, I made a presentation to staff members of 22 Australian Institutions and am sharing a few slides from that presentation. (The source of the data for Australia is already provided above. The source of the UK data is British Council.)

aus 09-10

UK 2009 over 08

Ways to quicken turnaround

Aug 6 2010

Damming the “Damned” Migrants !

“Migration is the oldest action against poverty. It selects those who most want help. It is good for the country to which they go; it helps break the equilibrium of poverty in the country from which they come. What is the perversity in the human soul that causes people to resist so obvious a good?”

J.K. Galbraith in The Nature of Mass Poverty, Harvard University Press, 1979.

Observing the debate in Australia where the leaders of both key parties seem to be turning anti-immigration simply for some votes while still making speeches in migrant pockets in a manner that seem to suggest that they are totally confused themselves. The lack-lustre campaign for the 21st August poll is indicative of the fact that Australian politicians are more election-savvy than really having a strategy for their country.

ACPET CEO, Andrew Smith, said no major party has promised any support for international education in the lead-up to the federal election, which is unforgiveable given the scale of economic destruction the industry faces at the hands of poorly planned policy reform.

“The Federal Government has crippled this industry over the past 12 months. The opposition’s cuts to migration would make things even worse. When will our leaders wake up and realise just how much is at stake in this industry?” Mr Smith said. “International education is a great industry for Australia and the region – economically, socially and diplomatically.”

“Yet it beggars belief that the larger international education sector has been ignored by both major political parties as they choose instead to trade blows in a race to the bottom on migration policy that could cripple industry, devastate our international reputation and take away Australian jobs,” Mr Smith said.

“I challenge Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott to show their support for Australia’s third-largest export industry and one of its great export success stories, and announce policies to help us build a sustainable industry for the future.”

Australian Government VET providers from the state of Victoria have taken out a release that indicates exactly what the Private Education Provider’s lobby group has said.

RE email

Universities Australia too seem to be using its interactions with the Government to put forth their focused arguments for a slow-down on the anti-immigration vitriolic that has now become a fashion.

I am a resident of Australia and hence donot have a vote. Voting in elections is mandatory for citizens and this gets me to ponder albeit academically as to who would have won my vote. Liberals or the Labour.

In my role I have had the pleasure of close interaction with policy makers and the Ministers with loyalty to both sides of the spectrum. To me there is not much to choose from. While in India last year, the current PM and the leader of the Labour party, Miss Julia Gillard, spoke so eloquently on the advantages of the migration policies and the fact that 1 out of 5 Australian was born outside of Australia. She also used her own example to illustrate that even the first generation migrants have equal opportunity in Australia. However, the election rhetoric is suggesting something else.

I have just put down an excellent read IMMIGRANTS – YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS THEM by PHILIPPE LEGRAIN and I recommend it to all policy makers… Impressed by some of his arguments, I will like to borrow some questions asked by him…

… most people baulk at the thought of people from poor countries coming to work in rich ones.

Why? Why can computers be imported from China duty-free but Chinese people not feely come to make computers here? Why is it a good thing for French insurance salespeople to hawk policies in Poland but a bad thing for Polish plumbers to offer to fix French pipes? Why is the door open for American managers to run factories in Honduras but the door slammed shut for Hondurans who want to work in American factories? Why, in short, is free trade and the free movement of Western elites a wonderful thing but the free movement of everybody else unthinkable? And why is it a good thing for workers to move within a country to where the jobs are, but a bad thing for people to move between countries for the same reason?

Sober-minded economists reckon that the potential gains from freer global migration are huge and greatly exceed the benefits from freer world trade.

If you are skeptical about the merits of globalization, you may not be swayed by the argument that the case for freer migration follows on logically from freer trade – although you might be, since I am essentially arguing that rich countries should open their borders to service-providers from poor countries, which is not a million miles away from arguing that rich countries should open their markets to farm produce from poor countries. But another way of looking at the case for freer international migration is this: if you want to help people in poor countries, freer migration is one of the most effective ways of doing so.

I can go on quoting LSE educated Philippe but that will not be right. You should get hold of a copy of this book read it yourself. It will be very useful and money well spent. However, if the Australian policy makers want a copy, I can contribute too.

Skilled Migration can have several benefits and amongst them is that foreigners may have different skills and qualities – or superior ones. According to an old joke, in heaven the cooks are French, the police are British, the mechanics are German, the lovers are Italian, and everything is organized by the Swiss; in hell the cooks are British, the police is German, the mechanics are French, the lovers are Swiss and everything is organized by the Italians. If these national stereotypes are correct, and the French are particularly talented cooks, then it would make sense for France to specialize in training chefs and export some of them. But not all cooks are the same, and Americans also like Asian cuisine, they might also want to import chefs from Asia. Moreover, the bubbling pot of immigrants from around the world may inspire innovative fusion cooking that blends the national cuisines in appetizing new ways.

Another useful skill that immigrants have is knowledge o their country of origin, which can be a big help for local companies who want to export there. And since, as one of the people interviewed by Philip and of an Indian origin puts it. “Immigrants bring a burning desire to succeed and make themselves”, foreigners can boost productivity and economic growth – especially if the extra competition they bring spurs locals to up their game too.

Australians, be reminded that in 2001, John Howard came from behind in the polls to win the General Election by declaring that “we will decide, and nobody else, who comes to this country” and turning back a boat laden with Afghan refugees. It is John Howard who has now been blamed by the Labour Government for opening Australia’s Immigration policies… There seems to be a contradiction somewhere indeed.

“Strangers instinctively question things that natives take for granted. They stimulate new perspectives because, simply, many things strike them as odd and stupid. That’s why it’s great for any tribe to have a smart stranger injected into it.”

G. Pascal Zachary, The Diversity Advantage. (Quoted in Phillip Legrain’s book)

Aug 5 2010

OZ chucks a doosra confusing all… Minister Crean uses enrollments to hide a 77% fall in student numbers!

New education minister (Simon Crean) has today been quoted in newspapers (look up http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/crean-says-the-overseas-market-wont-collapse/story-e6frgcjx-1225900787442 ) in Australia that things are not as bad since the enrollments have gone up, I have been forced to look for the exact statistics.

The following is the data for the student visas to Indians issued offshore (paper and eVisa) for the period July to June. All from the stats section of the DIAC site and hence reliable.

For 2009-10 the total numbers of student visas for Indian nationals to Australia is only 12483 and compared to 54574 for 2008-09, it is a huge drop in numbers of 77%.

Interestingly we seem to assume that the drop has been mainly in 572 and not in 573. On the contrary, the stats show that 572 dropped fro 31451 to 7014 while for 573 it dropped from 22366 to 5018. Hence 573(degrees and University coursework HE students) has dropped by approx 77% while 572 (VET diplomas) has dropped by approx 77% too.

There is something about the figure of 77% as it is uniform drop across the major subcategories and also with the total figure. I used to believe that 7 was a lucky number! Maybe but a double 7 is not so lucky now.

This is the reason why I have always advocated that enrolment stats tend to misguide and should be avoided… Statistically it is proven that at several times in past, numbers have dipped for countries but enrollments have risen due to re-enrolments or students being forced to stay as students to maintain visas. I want to re-invite you to an earlier blog that I did on 29th April regarding the attempt of US in confusing the world with enrolment data when their numbers fall. Ours indeed is a land of apes. Australia unlike the UK but copying the US began citing enrollments to show up larger figures and hence has once again tried to camouflage the fall by using useless enrollment data…The link to my previous blog on this topic is http://ravilochansingh.com/2010/04/29/us-fed-education-data-misleads-the-world-and-themselves…/

May 15 2010

Time for Aussie TUTORIAL to the “education” world!!!

Before Minister Sibal left for Australia in April, I, in my blog had suggested that he should take some tips from the Aussies regarding Vocational Education and any collaboration to focus on the Vocational Education and Training in India will be to India’s benefit.

As it turns out, Minister Sibal, not just did that but went one step ahead.

“India plans to restructure its college admission policy to allow vocational education students lateral entry mid-course into mainstream higher educational institutions for the first time following the Australian model.”

“Under the restructured policy, such a student will be allowed to join an appropriate engineering course mid-way — directly in second year, for instance.”

“The impetus for the plan came following a trip by HRD minister Kapil Sibal to Australia last month. Australia allows lateral movement of students between mainstream and vocational education courses. Close to a lakh Indian students went to Australia last year alone, mostly to pursue vocational education courses.”

These are only the first paragraph and the last paragraph of the article COLLEGE SWITCH IN SIBAL PLAN from The Telegraph of this day. You are welcome to take a look at the link for the full article.

India is not the only one, which seems to be taking notes from the Australians.

BBC has reported (see link) that

“Unscrupulous” recruitment agents who bring bogus overseas students into the UK are being targeted in an international initiative.”

“The British Council has for the first time brought together countries including the UK, the US and Australia to try to keep out such students.”

“A meeting of immigration and education authorities in London, the first of its kind, is intended to co-ordinate a multi-national response. Higher education has become a globalised market and the British Council says there needs to be an international approach to tackling fraud.”

“There are also concerns about “multi-national businesses which open up money-making colleges and then close them down, leaving students stranded”.”

“An inaugural meeting of English-speaking countries brought together representatives of the UK, the US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the Irish Republic. The UK Border Agency was among the representatives from the UK.”

“Pat Killingley, the British Council’s director of higher education, said competitor countries need to work together. “We have common interests – we’ve all built up reputations for quality in higher education that we want to protect,” she said.”

Not just the British that find need to exchange notes with the Aussies, Americans have gaped for long at the lead taken by the Australians. Take a look at the following slide used by AIRC (American International Recruitment Council) highlighting Aussie ESOS as an example for US to follow… It will be quite obvious…

These are only a few as examples. I found the American SEVIS to be inspired by the PRISMS. British too have openly admitted being inspired by the Ozzie point system and also they have just recently moved from visa letters to CAS (Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies) aping the Ozzie electronic COE (Confirmation of Enrolment).

I did a blog earlier this week titled WILL NZ EVER BE A DESTINATION FOR INDIAN STUDENTS. This blog resulted in me receiving so many emails with differing views and also many who were aghast as my being so candid. This blog too indicates that even NZ has lessons to learn from the Ozzies.

Lets certainly give the Aussies their due here. They are in the lead. 2009-10 is actually going to be part of their experience and 2011-12 will build upon this current year. Lessons are to be learnt. Following the Twenty-20 World Cup Semi-final match, I need to say that they have “hussey-ed” the world and India too stands “siballed”.

May 8 2010

The world of International education… this week.

A lot has happened in our world this week with direct and indirect impact on the Industry that I belong to…

Sibal tabled the Education Reforms bills:

Irrespective of whether I agree or disagree with Sibal and his directions, all the bills prepared by the MOHRD were tabled in the Parliament. Guys, it will take a long time even from now but the direction is certainly being shown. It may mean a few modifications and a few months but certainly the Foreign Education Bill in some form or other will be passed… You already know my take on the bills through my earlier blogs. Will India gain? It will. Will it gain enough? It will not. Will it justify the reasons being put forward? Never.

Australia defered the SOL announcement and has now suspended the Skills Migration lodgments temporarily…

The deferment of the SOL is actually a cause of anxiety for the potential applicants in Australia (onshore students who have or are completing their courses or on the TR) and also overseas. It is a cause of anxiety to all those who are planning education in Australia. Once again, you may say that PR and Education should not have a link BUT every student wanting to study does want to know if the occupation that he is planning for is an occupation in demand. The temporary suspension of the Migration lodgments is an indication of some things to come. There is a situation on the ground with many onshore with some expectation from the Australian Government. In the election year, will the Government be a little flexible or more inflexible?

Australian Immigration has re-registered Education Agents in India.

Just done a blog on 5th May and have added a postscript to that too. This is a turning point in the industry in India. You reap what you sow…

UK election result and its impact on Immigration.

Clearly the Tories are heading towards forming the government but the fact that they donot have clear majority is an advantage to some sections of the industry. The Tories agenda on Immigration was clearly a reversal of the labour-flexibility and almost like the current Ozzie mindset.

Conservatives

  1. Believe that immigration today is too high and needs to be reduced. Steps will be taken to reduce net migration to “tens of thousands a year, not hundreds of thousands”.
  2. Student visa system will be tightened up to clamp down on abuse:
  3. Make it easier for reputable institutions to accept applications.
  4. Extra scrutiny on new institutions and institutions not registered with Companies House
  5. Insist foreign students at new or unregistered institutions pay a bond in order to study in this country, to be repaid after the student has left the country at the end of their studies
  6. Ensure foreign students can prove that they have the financial means to support themselves in the UK
  7. Require that students must usually leave the country and reapply if they want to switch to another course or apply for a work permit.

More on http://blog.conservatives.com/index.php/2010/03/08/the-student-visa-security-loophole-must-be-closed/

(Thanks Rahul for sharing this…)

However, not having the majority and being forced to bed with the Liberal Democrats will mean that they may have to work on a “Common Minimum Program” and hence we can look forward to some softening on their agenda. The success of several “first generation migrants” in the elections including those from the subcontinent too means that there will be a more inclusive UK in future too. Just as a reminder Liberal Democrats are actually asking for amnesty for the illegal migrants… Interesting bed-fellows indeed.

Looking forward to the coming week with anticipation…

… Australia should soon announce the SOL.

… UK should get its coalition government.

… Time for Mangoes and Litchi now that Nor’wester has hit town.