Category Archives: australia

Jan 24 2012

I predict shrinking of On-shore student recruitment in Australia from 2013

When Internet reached inner confines of India and when the young started browsing at broadband speeds, it resulted in airlines cutting out the intermediaries or lowering the commissions paid to the agents and hence drove many travel operators out of business. The same was forecasted also for the education agents and many western commentators believed that students will now access the information online, put in applications online and then will not need the services of an education agent. They also hence influenced the “so called experts” within the education sector to devise strategies that worked from this assessment. However, there was one major error in the calculations. Overseas students did not need the agent only for assistance with applications into institutions. They also needed the agents for help through the student visa process with advise that came out of their experience. Though authorities did not approve, the agents also were the first port of call for students seeking education as a pathway to migration and whether the education agents offered migration process or not, they had to respond to the student’s queries on the courses that met the migration requirements. While the education information could be provided through online searches and online counseling, student visa guidance and also some “tips” on the migration pathway, could only be taken through the education agents “face to face”. Education Providers too realized this and more so realized that converting online enquiries to “bums on seats” was far more complex than through the services of the agents.

The above applied to offshore and onshore education agents and the business opportunity that came their way. A perfect business model indeed and win-win for all…Education Providers, Students, Agents and even Government Agencies. DIAC relied on selective agents worldwide to vet the visa lodgments. Austrade and AEI worked closely with agents to boost forex earnings and also to focus on certain markets. In Australia, several migration agents extended their activities to include education counseling.

However the last two years has seen a changed environment. Whether it is for good or not; is subject to another article. Here we just note that the environment has been altered.
A tightening of the residency visa regulations means that those who entered Australia desiring their education to be a pathway to migration had to look for changed courses and quick-fix solutions and handholding locally to find solutions.
Onshore agents were not recruiting students from offshore locations and suddenly found themselves moving students from diplomas to degrees and from one MODL occupation linked course to another SOL linked program.

This churning of the students already in the system gave an illusion of the market existing when the reality was that the new students entering Australia from India had declined by over 75% last two year.

The reality is also that the churning of the students in the system only has a short life span. There is likely to be very few students seeking changes from diploma to degree or any other such movement in 2013. Further, since the first visa to private institutions and to vocational providers has already become so difficult, it is less likely that the industry will see the same kind of numbers again. Students already in the University system are less prone to the churning phenomenon anyways.

This is only one aspect of the changed environment… The Post-Study-Work visa announced this year post-Knight review means that a “near-guarantee” is being linked to the student visa for degree students. Though this is a welcome move, it is something that will make many onshore education and migration agents uneasy. The “guarantee” means that the students will be able to work for 2-4 years on completion of the program and this was not dependent on the occupation and whether it had migration outcomes. This “guarantee” means that the students will not be seeking help from migration or education agents on-shore anymore from 2013 to the same extent as has been done currently.

And… the streamlined system proposed for the Universities and also other guides issued to them have meant that most Universities are going to be using less and less number of agents even in the overseas markets. Education Agents are going to be required even more but since the institutions have to be accountable for them, they are likely to be even more discerning. I will not be surprised if they limit their new agents only to certain markets around the world and reduce their onshore contracts.

Well, in light of the above… my gut feel is that migrations agents will be busier with employee and state nomination categories, family migrations and other such categories that require handholding beyond the information that is currently available in public domain. The skill level of the migration agents will also be challenged and personally I feel that this will drive some of them also out of business.

What bothers me is the fact that some registered migration agents due to their helplessness or greed are cutting corners in overseas markets through sub-contracting or otherwise and hence bracketing others in their industry also as suspicious. I may indicate that in India, AAERI was forced to suspend 4 agents recently for suspected-student fraud and even though the matter is still under police/authorities investigation, 2 of the 4 agents are registered (and continue to be registered) migration agents in Australia though functioning through sub-offices in India. Technically, the Australian legislation does-not reaches India and this is where a loophole exists allowing onshore-regulated agents engaging in unregulated activities overseas.

I shall hesitate in generalizing and shall acknowledge that many of the agents are ethical and genuine in their intent. However like what happened with offshore education agents over last two years, scape-goats too have to be found. I fear that Australia has found them in the onshore education agents and in the offshore activities of the onshore migration agents…

Jan 7 2012

Anuj Bidwe Killing: Indian Media commentary misses out where it matters…

BRITISH MEDIA INFORMS: Anuj had originally wanted to study in Australia but Subhash persuaded him not to because he was worried about a spate of racist attacks on Indians in 2009. 

BBC adds: Anuj Bidve could have gone to a US or Australian university to fulfil his dream of pioneering new micro-electronics technology. But his parents sent their only son to the UK because they thought “he’d be safer there”.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2080837/Anuj-Bidve-murder-Parents-took-bank-loans-send-UK.html#ixzz1iiQuuzMq

The point that I am making is NOT that UK is as racist as Australia supposedly is or that US is equally unsafe. But that any place in the world can be safe or unsafe and this includes our own cities in India. Just like our own neighborhood in India, we need to exercise caution and alertness in all large cities. Avoid certain areas after dark and also remember that there will always be some people, even though very few in numbers, who are racist or have a distaste for foreigners. This is a reality and possibly a reality alike how some feel in different parts of India for others from other parts of India who land up in their cities for the jobs. However, this is indeed a very small number and our interaction with such can be prevented if we avoid certain areas at certain hours. Don’t we advise our close ones to avoid certain areas of our own towns in India at certain hours? I am sure we do that. 

There are several useful weblinks that give tips on how to carry ourselves out while being an overseas student in a foreign land. Most education counselors (of repute) do conduct pre-departure briefings for their students. I am providing some excerpts from Vancouver Police site, which gives some safety tips… (Knowing that several of this blog readers are students…)

On the Street

Be alert. Walk with confidence. Walk with your head up. Be aware of who is and what is around you, and be careful when someone approaches you with a simple question. Leave strange or uncomfortable situations. Trust your instincts. Always tell your roommate or host family where you are going and when you will be back.

  • before going out ask advice for the best routes to events, restaurants or shopping
  • change direction if you feel you are being followed; go to the nearest store, restaurant, or pay phone
  • do not carry large amounts of money (cash), and do not show money in public; use bank / debit cards instead
  • never share your PIN number or let others see it
  • keep your passport in a safe place at home; instead carry a photocopy of your passport and other ID
  • don’t go out alone or accept rides with strangers; do not hitchhike
  • don’t use headphones when walking / jogging; they make it difficult to hear an approaching car or stranger
  • don’t carry weapons; they are illegal and can be used against you
  • don’t argue or fight if robbed – yell loudly
  • fight back to protect yourself if you are attacked; try to stop or distract the attacker so that you can escape and call 911

Out at Night

At night, walk on well-lit, busy streets. Try to be with someone. Walk in the middle of the sidewalk. Avoid isolated areas such as parks where there are no other people around. Carry a whistle or other personal safety device. Scream or yell loudly if attacked.

Jan 5 2012

With the killing of an Indian student “also” in Canada: Is it hate-crimes on an increase… jury is still out.

Manchester Police’s terming Anuj Bidwe killing as a Hate-Crime; the news was certainly worrying and then came the news of the killing of Alok Gupta in Canada. We have had Nitin Garg incident in OZ two years ago that got the two countries taking to tough-talking.

CNN-IBN reported…

New Delhi: It has been more than a week since Indian student Anuj Bidve was shot dead in the UK. One suspect who claims to be mentally unstable was charged with Bidve’s murder, while four others were released on bail.

On Monday, hundreds of locals joined Bidve’s friend in a candle light vigil at the site where the 23-year old was killed.

An impromptu memorial was also held at India Gate in Delhi.

Meanwhile, a UK police team met Bidve’s family in Pune on Monday. His family will leaving for Salford on Tuesday. Authorities say Bidve’s body is likely to be handed to his family later on Tuesday after a second post-mortem.

Bidve’s family said that they were satisfied with the UK police investigation.

Meanwhile, a student, Vikrant Gupta is also starting an online campaign for justice for Bidve. “The murderer who seems to be not in his right state of mind has done this act. I won’t worry about this thing on a large scale something which has happened out of the blue. I’m sure something like this won’t happen again but nothing can be guaranteed,” Gupta said.

“Students and Indians definitely feel insecure, they get worried about the things happening, I think the most important thing is that the families back in India because they don’t have the broader picture but I don’t think this is something that we should be worried about it. It has happened once I hope it doesn’t happen again,” Gupta added.

Anuj Bidve, a micro-electronics student at the Lancaster University, on December 26, became the latest victim of a hate crime in Greater Manchester.

Bidve was a part of a group of nine Indian students who were staying in a hotel in Manchester over Christmas. While heading towards the city centre at around 1 pm, they were approached by two white men. Reports indicate one of them asked Bidve the time and when Bidve didn’t reply, one of the men removed a handgun and shot him.

The Manchester Police have termed it a hate crime.

Indian student shot dead in Canada

In another such incident in Canada, an Indian student, working part time at a convenience store, was shot dead in Surrey, in a shocking Christmas Day attack.

Alok Gupta, 27, had volunteered to work the afternoon shift to allow the store owners celebrate Christmas together, and was killed by an unidentified gunman.

However, it was not yet clear whether Gupta was shot during a robbery attempt.

Police is yet to make an arrest in connection with the case, but say they do not believe it was gang-related.

“The victim was working Christmas Day as a good deed to the owners who wished to celebrate Christmas together,” said Sgt Jennifer Pound of the Integrated Homicide Investigation Team.

Gupta sought help at a nearby residence and was taken to hospital. However, he was pronounced dead a short time later; Pound was quoted as saying by the ‘Vancouver Sun’ newspaper.

“Although it appears that the victim died from a gunshot wound, the cause of death will ultimately be confirmed through an autopsy,” she said. 

US: Islamic centre, Hindu worship place attacked

Meanwhile, an Islamic centre housing a mosque and a Hindu worship site were targeted by thugs with firebombs on Monday in New York.

The attacks took place in Queens near New York on Monday night in which unidentified assailants threw homemade firebombs at a house used for Hindu worship services, Islamic centre Imam Al-Khoei Foundation, a home and a convenience store.

There were minor damages but no injuries reported. The police were treating the attacks as hate crimes and were looking into possible links to the other fires caused by similar devices that night.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg called such attacks unacceptable and said authorities are investigating the incidents.

“No matter what the motivation was of the individual who threw Molotov cocktails in Queens last night, his actions stand in stark contrast to the New York City of today that we’ve built together,” he said in a statement.

Such hate crimes had come to light in January 2010, when there were attacks reported on Indian students in Australia. 21-year old Nitin Garg was stabbed to death in Melbourne in January 2010 while he was walking to his workplace. An Australian teenager was sentenced to 13 years in jail for the murder of Nitin Garg in December 2011.

The recent attacks have yet again raised a question mark on the security of Indians across the globe.

Its not just Australia, UK or Canada and its not just Indian students… The reality is that all over the world and relevant to all international students… a need exists for all to be better prepared. That’s it. Overseas Education continues to remain a significant value addition and with better preparedness… a lot can be avoided. Counsellors and Education Agents have also a responsibility here.

Nov 26 2011

Australia to miss the opportunity due to “crafty” implementation of Knight Recommendations… I feel smarted.

Mike Knight recommendations did open up an opportunity. However, I feel that someone is cleverly pulling out its punch and moving it towards: Much ado about nothing. I have already summarized the huge achievement as that it has changed the mood of the market from gross-pessimism to optimism. I also indicated that the biggest two gains have been the introduction of slightly lower financial requirements and introduction of Post Study Work.

Before I list my reasons for terming the implementation as “crafty”, let me first lay out the opportunity that OZ has.

The Opportunity:

Solely thanks to the Mike Knight recommendations and its apparent advantages to the students, the student market had turned to an upwards preference for Australia as a destination.

Setting aside the so-called expert opinions, we conducted a random survey of 100 students from Eastern India (between September  and mid-November) to gauge the mood on the ground. The survey was aimed at determining the “first choice destination” as expressed by the “fee paying student”. I would like to point out that these 100 students expressed their opinion prior-to them being counseled and hence the survey does-not indicate whether they will be joining their first choice destination at all. However, it is a major analysis of the impact of the situation on the ground and deserves your attention.

 The above clearly indicates that in this September – November period in 2011, the first-choice destination amongst the fee-paying students is still UK ahead of other competitive options. However, what is real-development is that there is a clear “drastic” decline in interest for UK in 2011 as compared to 2010 and if we compare it to other destinations, we can notice that in recent months, there is an increase in interest for Australia possibly due to the Post Study Work introduction there recently. There is also an increase in interest for Singapore while NZ and Canada which grew rapidly last year seem to be plateauing out now.

Now let me share why I feel that the implementation of the Knight Recommendations is happening but not-necessarily as was intended.

First I remind as to what Michael Knight recommended for Post Study Work…

4.1  All graduates of an Australian university Bachelor degree, who have spent at least two academic years studying that degree in Australia, and complied with their visa conditions, should receive two years work rights.

4.2  All graduates of an Australian university Masters by Coursework degree, who have studied that degree in Australia, and complied with their visa conditions, should receive two years work rights on successful completion of their course.

The FAQ too issued by immigration on PSW at the first instance simply provided a cut-paste of the above and hence implying that students who complete a Masters (by coursework) of any duration to be eligible for PSW. Under 4.1 Knight did recommend a minimum duration for Bachelors degree as 2 years but his entire purpose of listing the Masters provision under 4.2 is possibly that he has attempted to differentiate for Masters and not recommend a minimum 2 year requirement. Atleast, this is my reading. Read the above again for yourself.

Now, lets see what has just been put out on the immigration link detailing the implementation.  The link is http://www.immi.gov.au/students/issues-impact-student-visas.htm

2013

Proposed implementation of recommendations arising from the Knight review.

Post-study work rights (Recommendations 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4 and 8):

Bachelor (and Masters by Coursework) graduates who have spent at least two academic years studying that degree in Australia to receive two years post-study work rights

Masters by Research graduates to receive three years post-study work rights

PhD graduates to receive four years post-study work rights.

Do you notice the craftiness that takes away the real bite. UK has had Post Study Work after a Masters which in most cases was a one year qualification. Historically the Masters in Australia was between 1 and 1.5 years and was only made a 2 year program due to immigration point system that gave the points for Australian study only if one had studied for 2 years. If the Mike Knight recommendations 4.2 is implemented as has been mentioned in the Mike Knight Report, it would have meant a big-deal and a life-saver. However, that is not to be so… Immigration in its site is clubbing 4.1 and 4.2 together and indicating that Bachelors and Masters (Coursework) need to be of 2 year duration.

Well, I feel that someone does-not like the Mike Knight recommendations and is twisting them to derail the full reforms or its potential advantages. Hope that someone will bring this to the attention of those who drafted the recommendation. 

Nov 9 2011

What’s happening to UK Education? Who and what are driving the agenda? Will the “wrong” bring votes?

I have written on it earlier and am now seeing many comment on the same lines… A write up in Guardian shouted WE MUST TACKLE VISA ABUSE, BUT NOT AT THE COST OF GENUINE STUDENTS… It elaborates that “Tough talk on immigration will frighten away the talent our colleges need.” (See LINK)

UKBA and the various spokespeople have learnt the use of negative vocabulary to such an extent that it become difficult to imagine anything positive in UK being an attractive destination for International Students. Yes, when they summarize with delight that their clampdown and measures are “beginning to bite” and when they claim that there has been a “wide spread” abuse of student visas, you begin to notice that they are not really complaining or pointing a finger to the abuse as such but actually scoring a political point through all this that the system in place by the previous regime was leaky… Let me make it clear… An International Student, An education agent and An institution recruiting students are all legit in making use of the available options and liberties. The job of making the policy is not theirs and if they have made use of the options then they should not be held responsible at all…

Coming back to the topic… I agree with the writer that…

International students are much sought after across the world. They bring valuable cultural, diplomatic and economic benefit with them. They contribute £5bn to UK earnings each year, making a huge difference to local economies. The students come to the country and then leave, without recourse to public funds. Of those who stay, many end up teaching and carrying out world-leading research. In a deeply competitive and global market, inter–national staff make up a large proportion of university staff, without whom many departments would not be viable, or at best would be significantly weakened.

The above advantages are more of an immediate term benefits that international students bring. I would like to add that the long term benefits are far reaching too. There are political and diplomatic advantages that international students deliver. I noticed that one of the reasons why “two years ago”, UK received less negative press in India when it was facing the same issues as that in Australia over college closures, why the unhappy student stories reached Indian media coverage to lesser intensity and why the Indian political class did not focus on the UK issue to the same level as they did with the Ozzies… is the fact that most of the players controlling Indian media, Indian polity and also Indian academia were all possessing some British education themselves. If you noticed the NEWSHOUR debates in those times, you could hear the British Educated commentators and image-builders talk in quite nasty terms on Australian history and made it look so inferior to the British strengths in education. I want to also state that whenever I interact with the Head-Master of a leading Indian School who is a thorough Brit himself, I find a clear disdain for any introduction of Australia to his school. I felt offended when he told me offhand that the students from India will face “racial bias” in Australia. I just did not expect it from him as he should have clearly seen the hype that was built up in a purposive manner by certain players at that time. And if he did notice the inaccuracies, he as the senior most in a school with responsibility of using “Knowledge as Light” should have corrected the mis-perception in the student mind-space…

Returning to the topic, I do think that the damage that the UK policies are inflicting is far worse. It is gradually building the word in the country that “Indian students are NOT WELCOME” in UK anymore and this message is due to the direction that the Government of the country has taken. How sad indeed… I referred this as “colonizers being fearful of reverse colonization” in an earlier blog and I would maintain that this “fear” too is such a negative word and destined to bring in more fear. Let the unemployment begin at the Universities once the number of International students come down… God Bless the country…

Before I close, I want to share the quality of perspectives that often comments to write-ups bring to the table… The quoted article had a comment by a reader:

The abuse of so-called “student” visas has been an open scandal for years. Hundreds of thousands of people with negligible skills and no intention of studying got in this way. Hundreds of bogus “colleges” flourished.

During all this time, reputable universities sat back and did nothing about it, as though it did not concern them. Well, they are now reaping the bitter fruit of their poisonous indifference. If you have no morals and turn a blind eye to scams, don’t be surprised if when the crackdown comes everyone things you are as bad, or almost as bad, as the scamsters themselves.

As to your point about genuine foreign students, you say:

“International students are much sought after across the world. They bring valuable cultural, diplomatic and economic benefit with them.”

I agree with this up to a point. But many postgrad science and engineering courses in the UK are now 100% Chinese. Is that really what we want? To be a knowledge giveaway for our industrial competitors? What about educating our own slightly-less-talented youth? Surely the national payback from that is many times higher than the once-off fees from the foreign students ?

And this is how another reader rebutted the above comment:

Another unthinking example of our current Government’s habit of ruling by gimmick without the wit to think through the consequences.

By carelessly making all foreign students feel unwelcome they risk a substantial loss of much needed national income. They risk the closure of many university departments who remain financially viable only through the high fee income from foreign students, and, although hard to quantify, they will diminish our global influence through the ‘soft power’ accruing from this sector.

As usual, they formulate and express policy not because it is in the interests of this country, but in order to appeal to the prejudices of the ill-informed (as illustrated already by some of the comments above).

“But many postgrad science and engineering courses in the UK are now 100% Chinese. Is that really what we want ?”

Hardly 100% I am sure – but it’s a sure bet that British students in these departments would be denied the opportunity of they weren’t kept viable by the foreign intake.

At least the Chinese Government have the wit to seek the very best education for their brightest – unlike ours. The high proportion of Chinese post-grads in many places is simply due to the fact that the necessary finance is available to them – unlike our own students for whom the provision of grants is woefully and short-sighted inadequate.

Don’t you agree that the comments to an article or even a blog are so useful in completing the story… This is where the internet is scoring over the print…

Aug 10 2011

We often criticize private education providers; sometimes we are wrong too… They donot just grab opportunities, they take lead too.

There is an advert in THE AGE that clearly holds the mirror to the Australian Government. This advert released by ACPET is simply repeating what has been said so many times already that it has ceased to startle us. An industry body that has always been acknowledged as a stakeholder is not advertising to get the desired attention of the government is something that is bothersome indeed.

 The Age 10 Aug 20110001.tif

Dodgy Colleges and Shonky agents have for far too long been held scapegoats for the chaos that runs in the industry and I guess it is now time to include Australian Government’s snail-pace approach to policy changes post various reviews (we saw it with the Baird review and now with the Knight review) into the factors that has possibly run Australia out of the reckoning even for non-Dodgy institutions and for non-Shonky agents. Time is of essence and we are all losing time. Some Universities (not just institutions) are losing budgets and staff too. Australia loses friends within and outside.

Come on Ozzie, you can do better. Even Indian ministers and bureaucrats do things quicker. I guess I am wrong when I make this comparison but it will bring you to ponder on the similarities between India and Australia once again. India deserves Australia and Australia deserves India, with or without me.

Feb 18 2011

Mirroring of Immigration Policies leading to a boring and flat world indeed…

A perfect theory till NZ played spoiler. I present my “cut and paste” hypothesis suggesting that immigration policies are being copied from one nation to another.

There was a time when the immigration policies, post study work and part time privileges varied from one country to another. These gave certain competitive advantages to each other. Even within UK there was a difference in post study work opportunities between Scotland and England. While there is no real reason to believe that those differences harmed anyone, over the last few years, too-frequent exchanging of notes and aping of regulations has not just led to similar and sometimes exactly-same privileges being offered by one and all.

 

Australia offered part time work permission for 20 hours per week and the UK started copying that. NZ and others too followed each other. Ireland and Canada introduced work permission and what was exactly-same was the number of hours each of them allowed the students to work during the study semester.

Then arrived the post-study-work privileges. Scotland introduced the Fresh Talent Initiative allowing students to work for 2 years post study. No just rest of the UK followed course, even Australian experts who often precede others in their initiatives, found logic in it to introduce a 485 subclass visa for graduating students to gain experience post their studies with an option to move on to other more permanent visa categories. NZ too around the same period introduced a job search visa that allowed students to find a job and then get a work permit. Canada too has a work permit though often that route is taken as a pathway to permanent residency. The OPT (Optional Practical Training) option in USA offers roughly the same goal. Hence the students had an option to gain some experience even without the permanent residency option.

The speeches of the immigration ministers too seem to be a cut and paste jobs.

“We have been clear that we will do nothing to prevent those coming here to study degree level courses and will protect our world class academic institutions above and below degree level. So the universities, all of whom are highly trusted sponsors of foreign students, should not worry. We want to make sure that every student who comes to this country is a legitimate student following a legitimate course.”

“Stricter control will be in the best interest of legitimate students. Some of those who come to study at less reputable institutions are genuinely in search of education which they do not receive. They may have been misled by questionable agents overseas or by these colleges.”

I will not be surprised if any of you assume the above to be from the speech of the Australian Immigration Minister. The reality is that this is an extract from his UK counterpart and that too very recently. The same content and very similarly drafted.

Not just them even media is ensuring generalizations. The quickest scapegoats they find in any conflict related to international students to be the education agents. The recent hungama over the US’s Tri Valley University scam once again got the agents to be seen in bad light for no fault of theirs. Now there is sufficient evidence that most of the students who ended up in Tri Valley were not recruited or counseled by agents in India at all but had moved from other institutions in USA exploiting loopholes in the system. The visa office too had bungled in some cases in giving the visas. Anyway, media and also some experts targeted agents and suggested that Indian Government should regulate dodgy agents.

In cricket, New Zealand has a reputation at being spoilers even if they cannot win. My theory too promoting a flat world was spoiled by this beautiful island nation. It is a delight to read the statement of NZ Immigration Minister Jonathan Coleman of yesterday.

“Not only does New Zealand gain from the economic benefits of having them study here, many international students stay on providing longer-term benefits by contributing their skills to our workforce and economy,’’ Dr Coleman says.

‘’Another plus for fee-paying foreign students is the recent introduction of interim visas which allows them to continue studying while applying for visas to further their studies. This will smooth the enrolment process for education providers.’’

The press release goes on to say: Students from India had the highest rate of transition to work (72 percent) followed by students from China (43 percent). Similarly, students from India also had the highest rate of transition to permanent residence (47 percent), followed by students from China (23 percent).

The research also found 68 percent of former international students were in fulltime employment 18 months after gaining permanent residence. Nearly one-third – 31 percent – worked in professional occupations and 62 percent worked in a skilled job.

Full text on this link.

While Minister Coleman may have played spoiler to my “cut and paste” theory, he has indeed re-established NZ’s reputation at being a thinking country and one that avoids aping other nations.

Whether right or wrong, it is indeed ensuring that our world is not totally flat. We don’t know the future though.

 

Feb 5 2011

Mr Mallya, please donot make me and other Indians appear UGLY?

As I walked into a departmental store in Kolkata’s City Centre, a poster of Kingfisher Beer informs that to be a proud Indian, one must forget the Ugly Aussie. Obviously a take “below the belt” at Fosters, the South African competitor, which to most is perceived as an Aussie brand.

This advert is to use the much-hyped incidents that took place in Australia in 2009-2010 to give an impression that Australians are racists. Gross generalization for sure and one that needs to be objected upon by all sane minds. Now there is clear evidence that while some of the attacks may have had racistic undertone, the bulk of the incidents were pure acts of “mugging” by “druggies and other such loonies”.  Australia continues to be a multicultural society and Indian students at Universities continue to feel as safe and secure as they will feel in any part of the world including their home country.

The dictionary gives the meaning of “racism” as:

racism |ˈrāˌsizəm| noun

the belief that all members of each race possess characteristics or abilities specific to that race, esp. so as to distinguish it as inferior or superior to another race or races.

• prejudice, discrimination, or antagonism directed against someone of a different race based on such a belief : a program to combat

If this definition can be applied, the Kingfisher Beer advert is clearly racistic too. Mr Mallaya’s company has “the belief that all members of each race possess characteristics or abilities specific to that race, esp. so as to distinguish it as inferior or superior to another race or races.”

Can someone tell the company that it should stop making lndians look and feel ugly. I commit that I will not be touching the advertised product. By doing that, I will be forgetting “this Ugly Indian to remain a Proud Indian”.

However, a question remains: Why does Kingfisher choose to shoot its calendars in Australia at all. I understand that it exports its beer too to Australia and has Aussie cricketers playing for its various IPL teams.

Feb 5 2011

Is the AL change sufficient to arrest the fall in Indian student numbers to OZ?

Assessment Level change for 573 is the single most positive news in the industry in the last year. It resulted due to sheer objectivity on the part of the decision takers and also considerable level of formal and informal lobbying aimed at explaining the disadvantage the visa requirements were causing to some genuine students. Now that it will make visas for the University bound students easier from April 2011, there is an expectation already that this will result in a reversal of the student-number trend that Australia finds itself in. This is not just a premature assessment or unrealistic expectation but is rather naïve.

Student numbers have fallen dramatically but totally on expected lines and to figures that has been predicted quite accurately, not just by myself but by most “in the know”. Experts took their time and once they overcame the bout of denial and a period of gazing at outdated statistics, they have given the reasoning for the fall in student numbers to 1)Security Concerns following the hyped reporting of the Melbourne incidents, 2)Student Visa hurdles posed by the AL4 assigned to category 573, 3)Period of relative confusion related to migration regulations and Post-study-work opportunities and 4)Forex changes that made the Aussie dollar dearer. In changing order of preference according to their own leanings.

Australia has now attempted at addressing these causes and waits for an effect. While the security issue has been addressed particularly in Melbourne and there has not been any Nitin Garg or Shrawan Kumar type incident for well over a year now, it will take some time and positive media for the security concerns to be removed from the minds of students and their parents. Student visas have been made easier for University bound students with the proposed AL change. The new migration system has been announced and there remains some pathways to gain experience in Australia post studies especially for those with higher levels of English and with skills in demand.

However, the issue of forex changes making Australian education dearer has not been addressed yet. When I point it to the experts that they are wrong in concluding the forex to be an uncontrollable factor, they do give me a good ear when I lay out the prescription. It basically relates to the first chapter in any economics text book. The price is determined and should be determined by supply and demand. In the current situation when the supply of places at the Universities is in surplus and the demand needs to be worked upon, the only method to do so is to ensure that the price “in Rupees” is kept at competitive levels to the options that the students have across the world. I am aghast to find Universities increasing the fees in 2011 even when the demand is poor. This is pushing them out of the consideration completely. In-fact, what they should be doing is to keep the fees at 2010 levels and offer a special “India bursary” to all Indian students which for a year could bring the fees down and hence help the attempt to excite the market again.

Once the institutions become aware of this requirement from their end and have addressed it, they should then aggressively arrive at the market and once again begin the promotions for quality Australia Education. “Go Ozzie Go” indeed.

Australian Government Departments too need to raise their resources and engage public relations stalwarts and image consultants. I am told that companies such as Counselage of Suhail Seth represents the British interests and do a good job (!). Prominent promotions highlighting the quality of Australian University Studies when coupled with Public Relations campaigns will definitely act as catalyst and in two years, Australia can once again be at the top of consideration for the Indian students.

Several ends to tie and they are getting there. My problem remains that my patience is running out and the interest in Australian education in India is losing momentum. Any delay will make it all even tougher. I am going to do my bit. What about you?

Nov 25 2010

2010 report-card and 2011 prediction: Demand from India for International Destinations

With 2010 Indian Student Data available for all major destinations and with UK too showing a huge decline(40%), is it a depression in the industry or a mere correction causing a “depression”!!!

depression |diˈpre sh ən|
noun

severe despondency and dejection, typically felt over a period of time and accompanied by feelings of hopelessness and inadequacy.
• a long and severe recession in an economy or market : the depression in the housing market.

Britain: 2010 and a prediction for 2011.

Now that the UK visa numbers for 2010 are being reported (see link) and with clear indications that the total number from India who will enter Britain for their education during the year to be not more than 35000 (a fall of 40% in 2010 over 2009), the corrections are truly in place and is being expected to finally settle around 25000-30000 per year by 2011. It may be due to the spurt last year was fuelled by sudden loosening of visas that led to thousands ending up in UK even without proper English communication abilities. The correction had to occur and was predicted even on the very first day when the loosening had been initiated. Britain’s total intake from India is likely to hover around 25000 and certainly under 30000. There are also whispers that UK may cut the 2-year post study work permission that now exists for graduating International students. If this happens, the numbers can shrink further.

America: 2010 and a prediction for 2011.

Thankfully, the reporting of the enrolment statistics has a mention of the total visa grants and so the newspapers have put that in right context for the first time. China overtaking India in total enrolments in 2010 is hardly of significance as was India leading in enrolments in 2009, a red-herring. I predict the Chinese numbers to also lower in coming years. The actual demand for a destination comes from the total number of fresh student visas from one country for another. The reports (see link) show that there were 32000 visas from India to USA in one year and I feel that this data is actually a comparable stats to UK’s 57000 of 2009 and my gut feeling is that in 2010, USA received less than 30000 students from India. What will happen in future will depend on how much the US institutions progress in adapting to the education agent-assisted recruitment. If there is progress and if more established University brands accept agents, the numbers can swell and USA can take a clear lead. However the marketing period for 2011 intake for the quality and more rigorous institutions is actually over already considering the lead time in place and one can expect realistically the Indian numbers to USA to hover around 30000 or even less.

Australia: 2010 and a prediction for 2011.

Australia had led the internationalization at one time in history but now is becoming an example of how a country continues to blunder to non-existence of the clichéd “whole of government” approach to Internationalization of education. The student numbers from India in their immigration stats for July 2009 to June 2010 over the earlier period fell by 77% to about 12000. (see my earlier blog with details on link). My gut feel is that if we look at the calendar year 2010, it will be only about 10000 or even less. The question being asked in all quarters is whether it will go down further in 2011 or will it begin to rise. The answer my friend is blowing in the wind. It was expected that Immigration will begin welcoming the quality students and turn on the tap once again for them. Especially when the risk of abuse of Assessment level mechanism being low following 1)so called PR vocational courses losing shine and 2)packaging route to enable easier visas through the higher category has been blocked. However, the “Immigration” continues to be guided by its experience of fraud in student applications though I continue to hope that the checks in place will be able to prune out the rogue from all applicants without disadvantaging genuine students. I feel fatigued from the various submissions made again and again and this fatigue is going to set in also with institutions and various lobby groups who seem to be again actively rushing to Canberra in a bid to get ministers and departments to understand their panic. I also believe that there exists misplaced arguments that lowering of the AL for category 573 will lead to its abuse again. Each passing day is resulting in lower prospects for a revival for the industry. The institutions have to take blame for their late start in lobbying. For a long time the institutions stayed put in the belief that the loss of numbers from India can be made up from China and I remember warning the leading providers that Chinese students enter the process at the ELICOS and pathway stage and so the impact only shows up one year later at the Universities. Which has happened now and so they have finally woken up. Better late than never.

Canada: 2010 and a prediction for 2011.

All reports show that Canada is doing a few things right. The SPP system in place has solved the muddle about the private institutions recruiting from India and given a clear direction. The system is working and the institutions are happy. The market is buzzing too. All indications are that that Canada is the story to watch in 2010-11 and should hit their highest student numbers ever from India. And why not! Canada also does-not hides behind experts that advice delinking of education and work pathways. They are also not compromising in anyway with regards to English requirements or funds and the SPP system is a model that should be adopted by Australia and NZ too as both has a developed private institution setup that is hungry for students. The University sector is also actively wooing the Indian students and recently a number of baits have been announced by way of scholarships. (see link on a major visit by the Universities to India earlier this month).My prediction for 2011 is that the country will continue to show good student numbers and if the institutions can come around to greater coverage of the Indian sub-continent and not just focus on North and West, Canada can top the total student visa numbers across destinations from India by 2012-13.

New Zealand: 2010 and a prediction for 2011

NZ that went up from in 2009 may actually have reached its most limit in 2010 at around  6500 approvals. (This data is the changed figure from the initial blog based on revised inputs received on 26th November 2010. Visa grants in calendar year 2010 till 25th November was 6187 and my estimate is that by the close of 2010 it will still remain around 6500. NZ saw an increase of 10% last year and is once again exhibiting about 10-15% growth this year. While the number of visa applications in 2009 and 2010 are roughly the same, the growth is largely due to reducing rejection rates of visas). The issue is not of the numbers but where they are going within NZ. The growth in 2009-10 was largely due to numbers ending up at the various private colleges and not as many to the Universities. It is now being expected that the numbers will stay well within this total for next few years but more will end up with institutions of repute. The University sector has fine-tuned their marketing in a collaborating format and the results are around the corner for them. The ITPs too have added more and more postgraduate and graduate diploma courses to be able to cater to Indian students looking at studies post their Bachelors. The visa system is finally showing evidence of maturity and the fund transfer scheme will make it easier for borderline students to be able to go ahead beyond the border. NZ too has a future here though my gut feeling is that the numbers will not grow too much but will end up with better institutions now. What is bothering me is the reports that seem to suggest that Education NZ may be merged with Trade NZ and hence going on the line that AEI lost its promotions and marketing role to Austrade. (see link)

Other Destinations: 2010 and a prediction for 2011

Singapore continues to grow but will (or has already) hit its potential in India. The test will be when know of the experience of majority of the Indian graduates from the second tier Singapore institutions with the job market in Singapore or elsewhere. I remain a little circumspect and will wait on for the reports to emerge.

Dubai and UAE has ceased to grow from India in my opinion. There is an audience but that audience is very limited.

China became a destination for Indian medical students primarily due to aggressive marketing by certain education marketers. Screening tests that graduating students have to take in India in line with Medical Council of India guidelines to be eligible as practitioners are reportedly fairly tough and there are several who are not able to clear it in their first attempt. Hence to say that China as such is not a destination but is (or was) driven by the access to cheaper qualification and in hope for their acceptance in India primarily as doctors will not be misplaced. There was a time that USSR was a prime destination for such students when MCI recognized the Soviet Union qualifications for the profession. Now that Medical Council of India has the screening test in place, the time for China as a destination is limited and the future of such students fairly risky. (Read this link to understand the risk)

Malaysia and Thailand have tried marketing in India and barring a few exceptions in AIT in Bangkok or Monash in Malaysia, I would feel that appeal for them in India would remain limited despite cost and visa attractiveness.

Certain European countries such as Switzerland (for Hospitality), France (for Management) and Germany (for Engineering and fee-free education) may hold some interest in India but will never emerge as a major education destination because India students aim at English-speaking destinations.

Conclusion and Overall student trends in 2010-11:

What we need to note is that the total number of Indian students going overseas to study has declined for sure and when we add up the numbers for all the major destinations, it is clear to me that in 2010, there will be less than 120000 students in total who may have travelled out of India on student visas (Despite indications that Canada and NZ have shown a growth). This is an approximate decline of 30% indicating a recession in the industry. I fear a further 15-20% decline in 2011 before it settles down around 100000 students and what will be of interest is the market share of the various destinations then.

The reasons for decline certainly stem from the US recession two years ago followed up with media hyped concerns on student security in Australia and coupled by tightening of post study work opportunities and student visa policies. Some may try to assume this to be a result of growth of Indian education sector that many are opting to study in India itself. I disagree by saying that while the intentions are very much there, no real ground development has taken place yet to convince me. Beyond a few of the Indian private colleges of debatable repute, there are also stories of action against the deemed statuses of some colleges. Foreign University Bill is yet to be passed and even if they are passed, it will take years before capacity can be increased in India.

The fact that recession is very well set in our Industry is also indicative by the fact that there are job-losses and no real indications of immediate upturn. It may actually be camouflaged as a much needed correction but certainly this correction is going to last for a few years and is causing a “depression” in our minds if not in technicality.